Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 5/3/2021

The total net positions of speculators in the USD index grew by 3,800 contracts last week. This change is the result of an increase in net long positions by 3,200 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 600 contracts. The total net positions in the USD index have been negative for 17 consecutive weeks.

According to the COT index, the positions of large speculators are at extreme levels, which indicate that the dollar is oversold. The current increase in overall net positions, together with rising yields on US bonds, could continue to support the US dollar strengthening.

The total net positions of speculators increased in the British pound, the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar, the Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc. On the other hand, the decline in total net positions continued in the euro and the Japanese yen.
 

The positions of speculators in individual currencies

The overall net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1:

	5/3/2021	26/2/2021	19/2/2021	12/2/2021	5/2/2021	29/1/2021
USD index	-10,100	-13,900	- 14,300	-13,900	-14,800	-14,700
EUR	126,000	138,400	140,000	140,200	137,000	165,300
GBP	36,100	31,000	22,200	21,100	9,700	8,000
AUD	6,000	- 1,600	- 2,800	-200	-1,500	800
NZD	16,400	14,600	13,700	11,500	11,600	14,800
CAD	15,300	9,100	8,200	9,500	16,100	13,800
CHF	12,300	11,500	8,400	11,400	14,600	10,100
JPY	19,300	28,600	37,200	34,600	44,600	45,000

_{Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators}

 

Notes:

Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the required limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading of long-term trends.

Total net positions are the difference between the number of bullish long contracts and the number of bearish short contracts. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week.

The sentiment of large speculators will allow you to see what position this group occupies in the market. It is important to monitor the overall trend of total net positions, but also separately the trend of bearish short positions and the trend of bullish long positions. Extreme values ​​of total net positions are also important as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal.

It is also important to monitor the turning points, when the total net positions change from bullish sentiment to bearish and vice versa. These inflection points are indicated in the graphs in section 3.

The chart compares the current value of the total net positions of large speculators with the value 3 years ago. A score of 0% means that speculators are at their lowest levels in 3 years. A score of 100% means that speculators are at the highest values ​​in the last 3 years. A value of 80% or more means that speculators are extremely bullish, and a value of 20% or less means that speculators are extremely bearish.
 

Detailed analysis of selected currencies

Explanations:
 

• Purple line and histogram in the chart window: this is information on the overall net position of large speculators.

• Green linein the indicator window: these are the bullish positions of large speculators.

• Red line in the indicator window: indicates the bearish positions of large speculators.
   

If there is a green line above the red line in the indicator window, then it means that the overall net positions are positive, i.e. that bullish sentiment prevails. If, on the other hand, the green line is below the red line, then bearish sentiment prevails and the overall net positions of the big speculators are negative.

Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com.

 

Euro

Date	Weekly change in open interest	Weekly change in total net positions of speculators	Weekly change in total long positions of speculators	Weekly change in total short positions of speculators	Sentiment
5/3/2021	1,313	- 12,400	- 5,800	6 600	Weakening bullish
26/2/2021	21,200	-1,600	5,600	7,200	Weak bullish
19/2/2021	2,600	-200	2,000	2,200	Bullish
12/2/2021	- 2,400	3,200	4,000	800	Bullish

Total net positions fell by 12,400 contracts last week. This change is due to a decrease in net long positions by 5,800 contracts and an increase in net short positions by 6,600 contracts.

The price of the euro continued to fall last week, breaking the low trend line and currently heading into the area of ​​consolidation in the range between 1.1600-1.1900.

Long-term resistance: 1.2250 - 1.2340

Long-term support: 1.1600 - 1.1620
 

The British Pound

Date	Weekly change in open interest	Weekly change in total net positions of speculators	Weekly change in total long positions of speculators	Weekly change in total short positions of speculators	Sentiment
5/3/2021	- 7,400	5,100	- 3,100	- 8,200	Bullish
26/2/2021	5,500	8,800	8,000	-800	Bullish
19/2/2021	1,100	1,100	-200	-1,300	Bullish
12/2/2021	9,100	11,400	6,800	-4,600	Bullish

Last week, total net positions rose by 5,100 contracts. This change is the result of a decrease in net long positions by 3,100 contracts, while net short positions decreased by 8,200 contracts.

The pound weakened last week and approached the zone of long-term support in the range around 1.37-1.38.

Long-term resistance: 1.42-1.4350

Long-term support: 1.37-1.38200
 

The Australlian Dollar

Date	Weekly change in open interest	Weekly change in total net positions of speculators	Weekly change in total long positions of speculators	Weekly change in total short positions of speculators	Sentiment
5/3/2021	4,600	7,600	5,400	- 2,200	Bullish
26/2/2021	4,300	1,200	1,000	-200	Weak bullish
19/2/2021	500	-2,600	-1,300	1,300	Bearish
12/2/2021	- 2,150	1,300	200	-1,100	Weak bearish

Last week, total net positions rose by 7,600 contracts, reaching positive bullish sentiment. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 5,400 and a decrease in short positions by 2,200 contracts.

The Australian dollar weakened sharply last week due to the decline in the stock indices which it correlates with.

Long-term resistance: 0.810-0.8200

Long-term support: 0.7600-0.7650
 

The New Zealand Dollar

Date	Weekly change in open interest	Weekly change in total net positions of speculators	Weekly change in total long positions of speculators	Weekly change in total short positions of speculators	Sentiment
5/3/2021	400	1,800	1,400	- 400	Bullish
26/2/2021	100	900	200	-700	Bullish
19/2/2021	-600	2,200	1,100	-1,100	Bullish
12/2/2021	- 2,030	-100	-1,400	-1,200	Bullish

Last week, total net positions grew by 1,800 contracts. This change is the result of an increase in net long contracts by 1,400 and a decrease in net short contracts by 400.

The NZDUSD weakened sharply last week in tandem with the Australian dollar and stock indices.

Resistance: 0.7370-0.7450

The nearest support: 0.7050-0.7100