Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 16/4/2021

The total net positions of speculators in the USD index rose by 1,600 contracts last week. This change is the result of a decrease in net long positions by 1,000 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 2,600 contracts.

The decline in total net positions of speculators continued in the euro, the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar, the Canadian dollar, the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen.

The increase in total net positions occurred in the British pound.

Risk on sentiment in stock indices prevailed in the markets last week with the cryptocurrency bitcoin reaching new all-time highs. This sentiment was accompanied by a sharp drop in US 10-year bond yields, which led to a weakening of the US dollar. Accordingly, commodity currencies and the euro strengthened.
 

The positions of speculators in individual currencies

The overall net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1:

	16/4/2021	9/4/2021	2/4/2021	26/3/2021	19/3/2021	12/3/2021
USD index	6,000	4,400	5,700	5,400	5,800	-8,900
EUR	66,900	67,500	73,700	93,300	90,000	102,000
GBP	25,600	20,000	25,000	21,800	28,600	33,900
AUD	3,800	4,100	12,300	5,900	7,600	8,100
NZD	2,500	3,100	4,000	4,700	6,000	17,100
CAD	2,400	2,700	6,500	5,100	10,300	11,000
CHF	800	3,200	4,300	2,900	4,700	14,400
JPY	-58,300	-58,000	-59,500	-53,500	-39,400	6,500

_{Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators}

 

Notes:

Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the required limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading of long-term trends.

Total net positions are the difference between the number of bullish long contracts and the number of bearish short contracts. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week.

The sentiment of large speculators will allow you to see what position this group occupies in the market. It is important to monitor the overall trend of total net positions, but also separately the trend of bearish short positions and the trend of bullish long positions. Extreme values ​​of total net positions are also important as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal.

It is also important to monitor the turning points, when the total net positions change from bullish sentiment to bearish and vice versa. These inflection points are indicated in the graphs in section 3.

The chart compares the current value of the total net positions of large speculators with the value 3 years ago. A score of 0% means that speculators are at their lowest levels in 3 years. A score of 100% means that speculators are at the highest values ​​in the last 3 years. A value of 80% or more means that speculators are extremely bullish, and a value of 20% or less means that speculators are extremely bearish.
 

Detailed analysis of selected currencies

Explanations:
 

• Purple line and histogram in the chart window: this is information on the overall net position of large speculators.

• Green linein the indicator window: these are the bullish positions of large speculators.

• Red line in the indicator window: indicates the bearish positions of large speculators.
   

If there is a green line above the red line in the indicator window, then it means that the overall net positions are positive, i.e. that bullish sentiment prevails. If, on the other hand, the green line is below the red line, then bearish sentiment prevails and the overall net positions of the big speculators are negative.

Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com.

 

Euro

Date	Weekly change in open interest	Weekly change in total net positions of speculators	Weekly change in total long positions of speculators	Weekly change in total short positions of speculators	Sentiment
16/4/2021	6,000	- 600	- 1,500	- 900	Weakening bullish
9/4/2021	2,500	- 6,200	- 2,500	3,700	Weakening bullish
2/4/2021	3,700	- 19,600	- 700	18,900	Weakening bullish

Total net positions of speculators fell by 600 contracts last week. This change is due to a decrease in net long positions by 1,500 contracts and a decrease in net short positions by 900 contracts.

The price of the euro strengthened strongly last week and reached the price of 1.1980 at the first resistance level.

Long-term resistance: 1.1980 - 1.2020

Long-term support: 1.1700 - 1.1750
 

The British Pound

Date	Weekly change in open interest	Weekly change in total net positions of speculators	Weekly change in total long positions of speculators	Weekly change in total short positions of speculators	Sentiment
16/4/2021	8,200	5,600	7,500	1,900	Bullish
9/4/2021	800	- 5,000	- 2,000	3,000	Weakening bullish
2/4/2021	- 6,300	3,200	- 4,600	- 7,800	Bullish

Last week, total net positions rose by 5,600 contracts. This change is the result of an increase in net long positions by 7,500 contracts, while net short positions grew by 1,900 contracts.

The pound strengthened strongly against the US dollar last week.

Long-term resistance: 1.42-1.4350

Long-term support: 1.3670-1.3700
 

The Australlian Dollar

Date	Weekly change in open interest	Weekly change in total net positions of speculators	Weekly change in total long positions of speculators	Weekly change in total short positions of speculators	Sentiment
16/4/2021	2,400	- 300	1,000	1,300	Weakening bullish
9/4/2021	- 100	- 8,200	- 3,600	4,600	Weakening bullish
2/4/2021	4,100	6,400	7,600	1,200	Bullish

Last week, total net positions of speculators fell by 300 contracts. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 1,000 and an increase in short positions by 1,300 contracts.

The Australian dollar strengthened strongly last week in line with risk on sentiment. This commodity currency continues to be strongly correlated with the SP 500 index. Therefore, if stock indices continue to grow, this commodity currency could also strengthen.

Long-term resistance: 0.7870-0.8000

Long-term support: 0.7530-0.7600
 

The New Zealand Dollar

Date	Weekly change in open interest	Weekly change in total net positions of speculators	Weekly change in total long positions of speculators	Weekly change in total short positions of speculators	Sentiment
16/4/2021	1,100	- 600	500	1,100	Weakening bullish
9/4/2021	600	- 900	300	1 200	Weakening bullish
2/4/2021	- 1,400	- 700	- 1,400	- 700	Weakening bullish

Last week, total net positions fell by 600 contracts. This change is the result of an increase in net long contracts by 500 and an increase in net short contracts by 1,100.

As the AUDUSD, so the NZDUSD could strengthen further due to risk on sentiment. The NZDUSD is strongly correlated with the AUDUSD.

Resistance: 0.7370-0.7450

The nearest support: 0.6900-0.6960