Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 19/3/2021

The total net positions of speculators in the USD index rose significantly by 14,700 contracts last week and entered a positive range after 18 weeks. This change is the result of an increase in net long positions by 2,800 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 11,900 contracts. Thus, total net positions in the USD index indicate strong bullish sentiment and the US dollar could therefore continue to strengthen.

In other currencies, there was a decrease in total net positions. The strongest decline in total net positions was in the Japanese yen, where total net positions fell by 45,900 contracts and we got into bearish sentiment.
 

The positions of speculators in individual currencies

The overall net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1:

	19/3/2021	12/3/2021	5/3/2021	26/2/2021	19/2/2021	12/2/2021
USD index	5,800	-8,900	-10,100	-13,900	- 14,300	-13,900
EUR	90,000	102,000	126,000	138,400	140,000	140,200
GBP	28,600	33,900	36,100	31,000	22,200	21,100
AUD	7,600	8,100	6,000	- 1,600	- 2,800	-200
NZD	6,000	17,100	16,400	14,600	13,700	11,500
CAD	10,300	11,000	15,300	9,100	8,200	9,500
CHF	4,700	14,400	12,300	11,500	8,400	11,400
JPY	-39,400	6,500	19,300	28,600	37,200	34,600

_{Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators}

 

Notes:

Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the required limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading of long-term trends.

Total net positions are the difference between the number of bullish long contracts and the number of bearish short contracts. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week.

The sentiment of large speculators will allow you to see what position this group occupies in the market. It is important to monitor the overall trend of total net positions, but also separately the trend of bearish short positions and the trend of bullish long positions. Extreme values ​​of total net positions are also important as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal.

It is also important to monitor the turning points, when the total net positions change from bullish sentiment to bearish and vice versa. These inflection points are indicated in the graphs in section 3.

The chart compares the current value of the total net positions of large speculators with the value 3 years ago. A score of 0% means that speculators are at their lowest levels in 3 years. A score of 100% means that speculators are at the highest values ​​in the last 3 years. A value of 80% or more means that speculators are extremely bullish, and a value of 20% or less means that speculators are extremely bearish.
 

Detailed analysis of selected currencies

Explanations:
 

• Purple line and histogram in the chart window: this is information on the overall net position of large speculators.

• Green linein the indicator window: these are the bullish positions of large speculators.

• Red line in the indicator window: indicates the bearish positions of large speculators.
   

If there is a green line above the red line in the indicator window, then it means that the overall net positions are positive, i.e. that bullish sentiment prevails. If, on the other hand, the green line is below the red line, then bearish sentiment prevails and the overall net positions of the big speculators are negative.

Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com.

 

Euro

Date	Weekly change in open interest	Weekly change in total net positions of speculators	Weekly change in total long positions of speculators	Weekly change in total short positions of speculators	Sentiment
19/3/2021	-83,100	-12,000	-11,700	300	Weakening bullish
12/3/2021	23,900	- 24,100	- 15,100	8,900	Weakening bullish
5/3/2021	1,313	- 12,400	- 5,800	6 600	Weakening bullish

Total net positions fell by 12,000 contracts last week. This change is due to a decrease in net long positions by 11,700 contracts and an increase in net short positions by 300 contracts. The decline in total net positions thus begins to gain momentum.

The price of the euro continued to fall last week close to the level of support. The current course of the coronavirus pandemic in Europe has a negative impact on the euro.

Long-term resistance: 1.2250 - 1.2340

Long-term support: 1.1800 - 1.1830
 

The British Pound

Date	Weekly change in open interest	Weekly change in total net positions of speculators	Weekly change in total long positions of speculators	Weekly change in total short positions of speculators	Sentiment
19/3/2021	-33,300	-5,300	-6,100	-800	Weakening bullish
12/3/2021	12,000	- 2,200	- 3,900	- 1,700	Bullish
5/3/2021	- 7,400	5,100	- 3,100	- 8,200	Bullish

Last week, total net positions fell by 5,300 contracts. This change is the result of a decrease in net long positions by 6,100 contracts, while net short positions decreased by 800 contracts.

The pound weakened slightly last week, despite the development of a coronavirus pandemic in the country. The reason for the weakening might then be a strong dollar.

Long-term resistance: 1.42-1.4350

Long-term support: 1.37-1.38200
 

The Australlian Dollar

Date	Weekly change in open interest	Weekly change in total net positions of speculators	Weekly change in total long positions of speculators	Weekly change in total short positions of speculators	Sentiment
19/3/2021	-20,900	-500	-4,000	-3,500	Weakening bullish
12/3/2021	400	2,100	800	- 1,300	Bullish
5/3/2021	4,600	7,600	5,400	- 2,200	Bullish

Last week, total net positions fell by 500 contracts. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 4,000 and a decrease in short positions by 3,500 contracts.

The Australian dollar weakened slightly last week, along with major stock indices, which were negatively affected by rising US bond rates.

Long-term resistance: 0.7870-0.8000

Long-term support: 0.7600-0.7650
 

The New Zealand Dollar

Date	Weekly change in open interest	Weekly change in total net positions of speculators	Weekly change in total long positions of speculators	Weekly change in total short positions of speculators	Sentiment
19/3/2021	-16,800	-11,100	-12,600	-1,500	Weakening bullish
12/3/2021	2,800	700	800	100	Bullish
5/3/2021	400	1,800	1,400	- 400	Bullish

Last week, total net positions fell by 11,100 contracts. This change is the result of a decrease in net long contracts by 12,600 and a decrease in net short contracts by 1,500.

The price of NZDUSD weakened slightly last week.

Resistance: 0.7370-0.7450

The nearest support: 0.7050-0.7100