Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 20/11/2020
Speculators continue to keep total net positions in the USD index in bearish sentiment albeit they increased their positions by 100 contracts last week.
The positions of large speculators continue to decline in the euro, where it fell for the 8th week in a row. The decline in total net positions also continues in the British pound, where speculators cut their positions for the 4th week in a row. The price of the euro and the pound sterling have not been influenced negatively yet. In this context, we mention that a trade agreement between the EU and the UK, which should resolve the form of Brexit, has not been finalized yet. However, the EU negotiators announced a progress in negotiations last week. This optimism keeps the pound in an uptrend.
The decline in total net positions occurred in the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen.
The growth of bullish total net positions in the New Zealand dollar continued for the 7th week. The total net positions were increased also in the Australian dollar.
The overall net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1:
| |
20.11.2020
|
13.11.2020 |
6.11.2020 |
30.10.2020
|
23.10.2020
|
16.10.2020
|
| USD index |
-1 100 |
-1 100 |
700
|
-1 300 |
-1 700 |
450 |
| EUR |
134 000 |
135 300 |
140 300 |
155 600 |
166 000 |
168 600 |
| GBP |
-19 700 |
-17 700 |
-11 200 |
-6 700 |
-2 000 |
-9 800 |
| AUD |
-8 700 |
-1 300 |
8 900 |
6 800 |
3 900 |
10 800 |
| NZD |
8 900 |
7 700 |
7 100 |
7 000 |
6 600 |
6 500 |
| CAD |
-20 400 |
-21 300 |
-20 700 |
- 18 000 |
-19 100 |
-13 600 |
| CHF |
14 900 |
15 900 |
14 900 |
15 500 |
14 400 |
12 200 |
| JPY |
29 700 |
41 900 |
28 100 |
17 900 |
14 200 |
20 000 |
Notes:
Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the required limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading of long-term trends.
Total net positions are the difference between the number of bullish long contracts and the number of bearish short contracts. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week.
The sentiment of large speculators will allow you to see what position this group occupies in the market. It is important to monitor the overall trend of total net positions, but also separately the trend of bearish short positions and the trend of bullish long positions. Extreme values of total net positions are also important as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal.
It is also important to monitor the turning points, when the total net positions change from bullish sentiment to bearish and vice versa. These inflection points are indicated in the graphs in section 3.