Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 9/4/2021

The total net positions of speculators in the USD index fell by 1,300 contracts last week. This change is the result of a decrease in net long positions by 2,800 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 1,500 contracts.

The significant decline in total net positions continued in the euro, which has been going on for several weeks. There was also a decline in total net positions in the British pound, the Australian dollar, the Canadian dollar, the Swiss franc and the New Zealand dollar.

The total net positions increased in the Japanese yen.
 

The positions of speculators in individual currencies

The overall net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1:

	9/4/2021	2/4/2021	26/3/2021	19/3/2021	12/3/2021	5/3/2021
USD index	4,400	5,700	5,400	5,800	-8,900	-10,100
EUR	67,500	73,700	93,300	90,000	102,000	126,000
GBP	20,000	25,000	21,800	28,600	33,900	36,100
AUD	4,100	12,300	5,900	7,600	8,100	6,000
NZD	3,100	4,000	4,700	6,000	17,100	16,400
CAD	2,700	6,500	5,100	10,300	11,000	15,300
CHF	3,200	4,300	2,900	4,700	14,400	12,300
JPY	-58,000	-59,500	-53,500	-39,400	6,500	19,300

_{Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators}

 

Notes:

Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the required limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading of long-term trends.

Total net positions are the difference between the number of bullish long contracts and the number of bearish short contracts. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week.

The sentiment of large speculators will allow you to see what position this group occupies in the market. It is important to monitor the overall trend of total net positions, but also separately the trend of bearish short positions and the trend of bullish long positions. Extreme values ​​of total net positions are also important as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal.

It is also important to monitor the turning points, when the total net positions change from bullish sentiment to bearish and vice versa. These inflection points are indicated in the graphs in section 3.

The chart compares the current value of the total net positions of large speculators with the value 3 years ago. A score of 0% means that speculators are at their lowest levels in 3 years. A score of 100% means that speculators are at the highest values ​​in the last 3 years. A value of 80% or more means that speculators are extremely bullish, and a value of 20% or less means that speculators are extremely bearish.
 

Detailed analysis of selected currencies

Explanations:
 

• Purple line and histogram in the chart window: this is information on the overall net position of large speculators.

• Green linein the indicator window: these are the bullish positions of large speculators.

• Red line in the indicator window: indicates the bearish positions of large speculators.
   

If there is a green line above the red line in the indicator window, then it means that the overall net positions are positive, i.e. that bullish sentiment prevails. If, on the other hand, the green line is below the red line, then bearish sentiment prevails and the overall net positions of the big speculators are negative.

Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com.

 

Euro

Date	Weekly change in open interest	Weekly change in total net positions of speculators	Weekly change in total long positions of speculators	Weekly change in total short positions of speculators	Sentiment
9/4/2021	2,500	- 6,200	- 2,500	3,700	Weakening bullish
2/4/2021	3,700	- 19,600	- 700	18,900	Weakening bullish
26/3/2021	2,451	3,300	- 400	- 3,700	Weakening bullish

Total net positions fell by 6,200 contracts last week. This change is due to a decrease in net long positions by 2,500 contracts and an increase in net short positions by 3,700 contracts.

The price of the euro strengthened strongly last week and reached the price of 1.1920.

Long-term resistance: 1.1960 - 1.2020

Long-term support: 1.1600 - 1.1620
 

The British Pound

Date	Weekly change in open interest	Weekly change in total net positions of speculators	Weekly change in total long positions of speculators	Weekly change in total short positions of speculators	Sentiment
9/4/2021	800	- 5,000	- 2,000	3,000	Weakening bullish
2/4/2021	- 6,300	3,200	- 4,600	- 7,800	Bullish
26/3/2021	- 1,900	- 6,800	- 3,400	3,400	Weakening bullish

Last week, total net positions fell by 5,000 contracts. This change is the result of a decrease in net long positions by 2,000 contracts, while net short positions increased by 3,000 contracts.

The pound weakened last week under growing tensions in Northern Ireland, which raised new issues with Brexit.

Long-term resistance: 1.42-1.4350

Long-term support: 1.33-1.3500
 

The Australlian Dollar

Date	Weekly change in open interest	Weekly change in total net positions of speculators	Weekly change in total long positions of speculators	Weekly change in total short positions of speculators	Sentiment
9/4/2021	- 100	- 8,200	- 3,600	4,600	Weakening bullish
2/4/2021	4,100	6,400	7,600	1,200	Bullish
26/3/2021	3,900	- 1,700	1,200	2,900	Weakening bullish

Last week, total net positions fell by 8,200 contracts. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 3,600 and an increase in short positions by 4,600 contracts.

The Australian dollar strengthened slightly last week. If stock indices continue to rise, this commodity currency could also strengthen, as it correlates with the SP 500 index.

Long-term resistance: 0.7870-0.8000

Long-term support: 0.7600-0.7650
 

The New Zealand Dollar

Date	Weekly change in open interest	Weekly change in total net positions of speculators	Weekly change in total long positions of speculators	Weekly change in total short positions of speculators	Sentiment
9/4/2021	600	- 900	300	1 200	Weakening bullish
2/4/2021	- 1,400	- 700	- 1,400	- 700	Weakening bullish
26/3/2021	3,700	- 1,300	400	1,700	Weakening bullish

Last week, total net positions fell by 900 contracts. This change is the result of an increase in net long contracts by 300 and an increase in net short contracts by 1,200.

Also the NZDUSD could strengthen further due to risk on sentiment.

Resistance: 0.7370-0.7450

The nearest support: 0.6900-0.6960