Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 9/7/2021

The total net speculator positions in the USD index rose by 8,000 contracts last week and moved into a bullish range. This change is the result of a 2,300 contract increase in long positions and a 5,700 contract decrease in short positions.

 

The increase in total net speculator positions occurred last week in the British pound and the Japanese yen.

 

Decrease in total net positions occurred in the euro, the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar, the Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

 

The positions of speculators in individual currencies

The total net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short.

 

	9/7/2021	2/7/2021	25/6/2021	21/6/2021	11/6/2021	4/6/2021
USD index	7,600	-400	-500	-2,300	1,800	3,000
EUR	77,200	87,200	89,100	118,200	107,200	109,300
GBP	21,900	17,700	17,900	32,200	27,700	24,100
AUD	-24,900	-17,800	-17,600	-17,900	-9,400	-1,900
NZD	1,800	3,100	3,300	3,300	5,500	5,900
CAD	41,200	45,800	43,200	44,300	45,300	48,800
CHF	10,200	11,100	13,600	9,400	1,100	300
JPY	-69,100	-69,900	-53,900	-46,900	-37,300	-47,100

_{Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators}

 

Notes:

Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument.

The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week.

The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment.

When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal.

Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.

Detailed analysis of selected currencies

Explanations:
 

Purple line and histogram in the chart window: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend.

Green line in the indicator window: these are the bullish positions of large speculators.

Red line in the indicator window: indicates the bearish positions of large speculators.

If there is a green line above the red line in the indicator window, then it means that the overall net positions are positive, i.e. that bullish sentiment prevails. If, on the other hand, the green line is below the red line, then bearish sentiment prevails and the overall net positions of the big speculators are negative.

Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.

Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com.
 

Euro

Date	Weekly change in open interest	Weekly change in total net positions of speculators	Weekly change in total long positions of speculators	Weekly change in total short positions of speculators	Sentiment
9/7/2021	2,000	-10,000	3,900	13,900	Weakening bullish
2/7/2021	2,600	1,900	1,200	3,100	Weakening bullish
25/6/2021	100	-29,100	-3,000	26,100	Weakening bullish

 

Total net speculator positions fell by 10,000 contracts last week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 3,900 contracts and an increase in short positions by 13,900 contracts.

The price of the euro strengthened slightly last week.

Long-term resistance: 1.2240 - 1.2350

Long-term support: 1.1700 - 1.1750
 

The British pound

Date	Weekly change in open interest	Weekly change in total net positions of speculators	Weekly change in total long positions of speculators	Weekly change in total short positions of speculators	Sentiment
9.7.2021	9,600	4,200	5,600	1,400	Bullish
2/7/2021	-2,100	-200	200	400	Weakening bullish
25/6/2021	15,200	-14,300	-3,800	10,500	Weakening bullish

 

Last week, the total net positions of speculators rose by 4,200 contracts. This change is the result of a 5,600 increase in long positions and a 1,400 contract increase in short positions.

The pound appreciated slightly against the US dollar last week.

 

Long-term resistance: 1.42-1.4350

 

Long-term support: 1.3670-1.3700
 

The Australian dollar

Date	Weekly change in open interest	Weekly change in total net positions of speculators	Weekly change in total long positions of speculators	Weekly change in total short positions of speculators	Sentiment
9/7/2021	6,900	-7,100	4,500	11,600	Bearish
2/7/2021	-7,300	-200	-7,300	-7,100	Bearish
25/6/2021	23,600	300	16,000	15,700	Bearish

 

Last week, speculators total net positions fell by 7,100 contracts. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 4,500 and a decrease in short positions by 11,600 contracts.

The Australian dollar weakened last week and continues to hover near the 0.7450 support.

Long-term resistance: 0.7870-0.8000

 

Long-term support: 0.7530-0.7600
 

The New Zealand dollar

 

Date	Weekly change in open interest	Weekly change in total net positions of speculators	Weekly change in total long positions of speculators	Weekly change in total short positions of speculators	Sentiment
9/7/2021	400	-1,300	-500	800	Weakening bullish
2/7/2021	2,000	-200	700	900	Weakening bullish
25/6/2021	1,400	0	700	700	Weakening bullish

Last week, total net positions fell by 1,300 contracts, the result of a 500-contract drop in long positions and an 800-contract increase in short positions.

The NZD weakened slightly last week and retested the support level.

Resistance: 0.7370-0.7450

The nearest support: 0.6900-0.6960