Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 26/11/2021

Total net speculator positions in the USD index rose by 900 contracts last week. This change is the result of a decrease in long positions by 800 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 1,700 contracts.

The decline in total net positions occurred on all monitored currencies.

In the Canadian dollar, speculators' total net positions moved into a negative bearish range. Bullish sentiment remains in the New Zealand dollar.

Information about a new coronavirus variant emerged on Friday. As the COT data shows the status as of Tuesday last week, this news is not reflected in the COT data yet.
 

The positions of speculators in individual currencies

The total net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short.
 

	26/11/2021	19/11/2021	12/11/2021	5/11/2021	29/10/2021	22/10/2021
USD index	35 800	34,900	35,400	35,000	34,500	36,000
EUR	-16 500	-3,800	3,800	-6,100	-11,300	-12,100
GBP	-63 300	-31,600	-12,100	15,000	15,000	1,600
AUD	13 900	-61,200	-63,400	-75,500	-75,200	-76,100
NZD	-3 100	14,000	12,900	13,900	8,900	6,400
CAD	-11 400	8,700	-5,100	4,200	3,300	-10,900
CHF	-8,900	-17,000	-20,600	-19,400	-17,600	-13,000
JPY	-97 300	-93,100	-105,400	-107,600	-107,000	-102,700

_{Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators}

 

Notes:

Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument.

The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week.

The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment.

When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal.

Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.
 

Detailed analysis of selected currencies

Explanations:
 

Purple line and histogram in the chart window: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend.

Green line in the indicator window: these are the bullish positions of large speculators.

Red line in the indicator window: indicates the bearish positions of large speculators.

If there is a green line above the red line in the indicator window, then it means that the overall net positions are positive, i.e. that bullish sentiment prevails. If, on the other hand, the green line is below the red line, then bearish sentiment prevails and the overall net positions of the big speculators are negative.

Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.

Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com.
 

The Euro

Date	Weekly change in open interest	Weekly change in total net positions of speculators	Weekly change in total long positions of speculators	Weekly change in total short positions of speculators	Sentiment
26/11/2021	6,000	-12,700	6,000	18,700	Bearish
19/11/2021	27,300	-7,600	5,600	13,200	Bearish
12/11/2021	300	9,900	1,000	-8,900	Bullish

 

Total net speculator positions fell by 12,700 contracts last week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 6,000 contracts and an increase in short positions by 18,700 contracts.

The euro strengthened last week and ended the week with a bullish pin bar. On the daily chart, we can see that the price is touching the downtrend line, where the resistance is around 1.1360. Here the price could turn downwards. The next strong resistance is then in the band around 1.1500.

Long-term resistance: 1.1350 - 1.1370
Long-term support: 1.1150 - 1.1180

 

The British pound

Date	Weekly change in open interest	Weekly change in total net positions of speculators	Weekly change in total long positions of speculators	Weekly change in total short positions of speculators	Sentiment
26/11/2021	6,200	-3,000	-300	2,700	Bearish
19/11/2021	20,200	-19,500	-3,600	15,900	Bearish
12/11/2021	20,100	-27,100	-3,300	23,900	Bearish

 

Last week, the total net positions of speculators fell by 3,000 contracts. This state of total net positions over the past week is the result of a decrease in long positions by 300 and an increase in short positions by 2,700 contracts.

The pound continues to be in a downtrend and weakened last week, breaking through the 1.3350 support, which has now become a new resistance.

Long-term resistance: 1.3350-1.3360
Long-term support: 1.3150-1.3210

 

 

The Australian dollar

Date	Weekly change in open interest	Weekly change in total net positions of speculators	Weekly change in total long positions of speculators	Weekly change in total short positions of speculators	Sentiment
26/11/2021	21,300	-2,100	9,800	11,900	Bearish
19/11/2021	9,400	2,200	6,900	4,700	Weakening bearish
12/11/2021	-5,600	12,100	4,700	-7,400	Weakening bearish

 

Last week, the total net positions of speculators fell by 2,100 contracts. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 9,800 contracts and an increase in short positions by 11,900 contracts.

The Australian dollar weakened strongly last week under the influence of risk-off sentiment brought by the news of a new coronavirus variant. The AUDUSD broke support at 0.7160, which has now become a resistance. Price is currently trading in the area of strong support.

Long-term resistance: 0.7160-0.7180
Long-term support: 0.7090-0.7100

 

The New Zealand dollar

 

Date	Weekly change in open interest	Weekly change in total net positions of speculators	Weekly change in total long positions of speculators	Weekly change in total short positions of speculators	Sentiment
26/11/2021	1,600	-100	1,400	1,500	Weakening bullish
19/11/2021	-500	1,100	1,100	0	Bullish
12/11/2021	-1,900	-1,000	-2,200	-1,200	Weakening bullish

Last week, total net positions fell by 100 contracts. The change in total net positions is the result of an increase in long positions by 1,400 contracts and an increase in short positions by 1,500 contracts. 

The New Zealand dollar also weakened strongly last week on risk-off sentiment and reached strong support in the area around 0.6800. There was a break of this support but the price still closed above it. If this break is confirmed as false, then the NZDUSD could likely strengthen to at least 0.7000.

Long-term resistance: 0.6850-0.6870
Long-term support: 0.6780-0.6810