Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 29/10/2021

Total net speculator positions in the USD index fell by 1,500 contracts last week. This change is the result of a decrease in long positions by 2,400 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 900 contracts.
The increase in total net speculator positions occurred last week in the euro, the British pound, the Australian dollar, the New Zealand dollar, and the Canadian dollar.
The decline in total net positions occurred in the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc. 
 

The positions of speculators in individual currencies

The total net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short.
 

	29/10/2021	22/10/2021	15/10/2021	8/10/2021	1/10/2021	24/9/2021
USD index	34,500	36,000	35,100	32,000	26,500	25,100
EUR	-11,300	-12,100	-18,400	-22,300	900	12,100
GBP	15,000	1,600	-12,000	-20,000	2,000	-200
AUD	-75,200	-76,100	-87,600	-90,000	-86,400	-85,600
NZD	8,900	6,400	8,700	8,100	10,200	8,100
CAD	3,300	-10,900	-27 900	-26,900	-20,200	-27,900
CHF	-19,400	-17,600	-13,000	-15,700	-11,600	-9,200
JPY	-107,000	-102,700	-76,600	-63,700	-64,800	-56,100

_{Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators}

 

Notes:

Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument.

The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week.

The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment.

When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal.

Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.
 

Detailed analysis of selected currencies

Explanations:
 

Purple line and histogram in the chart window: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend.

Green line in the indicator window: these are the bullish positions of large speculators.

Red line in the indicator window: indicates the bearish positions of large speculators.

If there is a green line above the red line in the indicator window, then it means that the overall net positions are positive, i.e. that bullish sentiment prevails. If, on the other hand, the green line is below the red line, then bearish sentiment prevails and the overall net positions of the big speculators are negative.

Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.

Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com.
 

The euro



Date	Weekly change in open interest	Weekly change in total net positions of speculators	Weekly change in total long positions of speculators	Weekly change in total short positions of speculators	Sentiment
29/10/2021	1,000	800	3,600	2,800	Weakening bearish
22/10/2021	-15,900	6,300	-9,200	-15,500	Weakening bearish
15/10/2021	1,700	3,900	5,700	1,800	Weakening bullish

 

Total net speculator positions rose by 800 contracts last week. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 3,600 contracts and an increase in short positions by 2,800 contracts.

The euro continues to move in a downtrend. Last week, after the ECB monetary policy announcement, the price strengthened against the euro and reached the resistance at the EMA 50 moving average, where the horizontal resistance of 1.1700 was as well. From there, the eurusd  weakened strongly on Friday confirming the downtrend.
 

Long-term resistance: 1.1660 - 1.1700
Long-term support: 1.1500 - 1.1520

 

The British pound



Date	Weekly change in open interest	Weekly change in total net positions of speculators	Weekly change in total long positions of speculators	Weekly change in total short positions of speculators	Sentiment
29/10/2021	-2,500	13,400	2,800	-10,600	Bullish
22/10/2021	-13,900	13,600	2,300	-11,300	Bullish
15/10/2021	-9,500	8,000	-1,400	9,400	Weakening bearish

 

Last week, the total net positions of speculators rose by 13,400 contracts. The change in total net positions over the past week is the result of an increase in long positions by 2,800 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 10,600 contracts.

The pound continues to be in a downtrend. The break of the trend line proved to be a false break. When this happens, it is usually a very strong signal for a further decline in a downtrend. This was confirmed last week. The pound reacted at the 1.3830 resistance from where it bounced downwards.
 

Long-term resistance: 1.3820-1.3840
Long-term support: 1.3540-1.3570

 

 

The Australian dollar



Date	Weekly change in open interest	Weekly change in total net positions of speculators	Weekly change in total long positions of speculators	Weekly change in total short positions of speculators	Sentiment
29/10/2021	1,500	900	5,900	5,000	Weakening bearish
22/10/2021	-19,400	11,500	400	-11,100	Weakening bearish
15/10/2021	-10,800	2,400	-6,200	-8,600	Weakening bearish

 

Last week, the total net positions of speculators grew by 900 contracts. This change is due to the growth in long positions by 5,900 contracts and the growth in short positions by 5,000 contracts.

The Australian dollar strengthened last week and approached strong resistance at around 0.7550. The EMA 50 moving average is above the SMA 100, which is a bullish signal.
 

Long-term resistance: 0.7550-0.7600
Long-term support: 0.7170-0.7180

 

The New Zealand dollar

  

Date	Weekly change in open interest	Weekly change in total net positions of speculators	Weekly change in total long positions of speculators	Weekly change in total short positions of speculators	Sentiment
29/10/2021	5,300	2,500	3,500	1,000	Bullish
22/10/2021	400	-2,300	500	2,800	Weakening bullish
15/10/2021	1,500	600	2,500	1,900	Bullish

Last week, total net positions fell by 2,300 contracts. The change in total net positions is the result of an increase in long positions by 500 contracts and an increase in short positions by 2,800 contracts. 

The New Zealand dollar strengthened last week and got to the resistance at 0.7220, which is a new high.  At the same time, the EMA 50 moving average is above the SMA 100, which is a bullish constellation.


Resistance: 0.7200-0.7220
Long term support: 0.7060-0.7100