Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 19/2/2021

The total net positions of speculators in the USD index fell by 400 contracts last week. This change is the result of a decrease in net long positions by 100 contracts and an increase in short positions by 300 contracts. The total net positions of speculators in the USD index have been negative for 15 weeks in a row.

According to the COT index, the positions of large speculators are at extreme values, however, from the point of view of price action analysis, the reversal of the trend has not yet been confirmed. Therefore the US dollar might continue to weaken.

Total net positions increased in the British pound, the New Zealand dollar and the Japanese yen. By contrast, total net positions fell in the euro, the Australian dollar, the Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.
 

The positions of speculators in individual currencies

	19/2/2021	12/2/2021	5/2/2021	29/1/2021	22/1/2021	15/1/2021
USD index	- 14 300	-13 900	-14 800	-14 700	-14 300	-13 900
EUR	140 000	140 200	137 000	165 300	163 500	155 900
GBP	22 200	21 100	9 700	8 000	13 700	12 900
AUD	- 2 800	-200	-1 500	800	4 900	5 500
NZD	13 700	11 500	11 600	14 800	16 000	14 700
CAD	8 200	9 500	16 100	13 800	10 300	12 100
CHF	8 400	11 400	14 600	10 100	9 400	12 000
JPY	37 200	34 600	44 600	45 000	50 000	50 500

Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators

 

Notes:

Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the required limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading of long-term trends.

Total net positions are the difference between the number of bullish long contracts and the number of bearish short contracts. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week.

The sentiment of large speculators will allow you to see what position this group occupies in the market. It is important to monitor the overall trend of total net positions, but also separately the trend of bearish short positions and the trend of bullish long positions. Extreme values ​​of total net positions are also important as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal.

It is also important to monitor the turning points, when the total net positions change from bullish sentiment to bearish and vice versa. These inflection points are indicated in the graphs in section 3.

The chart compares the current value of the total net positions of large speculators with the value 3 years ago. A score of 0% means that speculators are at their lowest levels in 3 years. A score of 100% means that speculators are at the highest values ​​in the last 3 years. A value of 80% or more means that speculators are extremely bullish, and a value of 20% or less means that speculators are extremely bearish.
 

Detailed analysis of selected currencies

Explanations:
 

• Purple line and histogram in the chart window: this is information on the overall net position of large speculators.

• Green linein the indicator window: these are the bullish positions of large speculators.

• Red line in the indicator window: indicates the bearish positions of large speculators.
   

If there is a green line above the red line in the indicator window, then it means that the overall net positions are positive, i.e. that bullish sentiment prevails. If, on the other hand, the green line is below the red line, then bearish sentiment prevails and the overall net positions of the big speculators are negative.

Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com.

 

Euro

Date	Weekly change in open interest	Weekly change in total net positions of speculators	Weekly change in total long positions of speculators	Weekly change in total short positions of speculators	Sentiment
19/2/2021	2 600	-200	2 000	2 200	Bullish
12/2/2021	-2 400	3 200	4 000	800	Bullish

 

Total net positions fell by 200 contracts last week. This change is due to an increase in net long positions by 2,000 contracts and an increase in net short positions by 2,200 contracts.

The euro price opened and closed at about the same level last week. From the point of view of technical analysis, the euro continues to be in a rising trend.

Long-term resistance: 1.2250 - 1.2340

Long-term support: 1.1940 - 1.2000
 

The British Pound

Date	Weekly change in open interest	Weekly change in total net positions of speculators	Weekly change in total long positions of speculators	Weekly change in total short positions of speculators	Sentiment
19/2/2021	1 100	1 100	-200	-1 300	Bullish
12/2/2021	9 100	11 400	6 800	-4 600	Bullish

Last week, total net positions rose by 1,100 contracts. This change is the result of an increase in net long positions by 200 contracts, while net short positions decreased by 1,300 contracts. Open interest in futures contracts is growing, confirming a strong growing trend.

The pound continued to strengthen last week, breaking the resistance level at around 1.38 and it is continuing to grow.

Long-term resistance: 1.42-1.4350

Long-term support: 1.37-1.38200
 

The Australlian Dollar

Date	Weekly change in open interest	Weekly change in total net positions of speculators	Weekly change in total long positions of speculators	Weekly change in total short positions of speculators	Sentiment
19/2/2021	500	-2 600	-1 300	1 300	Bearish
12/2/2021	-2 150	1 300	200	-1 100	Weak bearish

Last week, total net positions fell by 2,600 contracts. This change is due to a decrease in long positions by 1,300 and an increase in short positions by 1,300 contracts.

The Australian dollar strengthened sharply last week, surpassing the resistance level, which has now become a new support level.

Long-term resistance: 0.810-0.8200

Long-term support: 0.7750-0.7810
 

The New Zealand Dollar

Date	Weekly change in open interest	Weekly change in total net positions of speculators	Weekly change in total long positions of speculators	Weekly change in total short positions of speculators	Sentiment
19/2/2021	-600	2 200	1 100	-1 100	Bullish
12/2/2021	-2 030	-100	1 400	-1 200	Bullish

Last week, total net positions grew by 2,200 contracts. This change is the result of an increase in net long contracts by 1,100 and a decrease in net short contracts by 1,100.

The NZDUSD price strengthened strongly last week and closed at the top of the current resistance band. If a breakthrough occurs, then the next resistance is in the range 0.7370 - 0.7420.

Resistance: 0.7230-0.7320

The nearest support: 0.7050-0.7100