Positions of large speculators according to the COT report as at 25/6/2021

Total net speculator positions in the USD index rose by 1,800 contracts last week. This change is the result of a decrease in long positions by 1,100 contracts and a decrease in short positions by 2,900 contracts.

 

The increase in total net speculator positions occurred in the Australian dollar and Swiss franc last week.

 

Decreases in total net positions occurred on the Canadian dollar, Japanese yen, euro and British pound.

 

U.S. equity indices appreciated last week, suggesting risk-on sentiment. In this case, commodity currencies such as the Australian dollar usually strengthen. But large speculators are significantly short in the Australian dollar, which may reflect nervousness about a new mutation of the coronavirus.

 

The positions of speculators in individual currencies

The total net positions of large speculators are shown in Table 1: If the value is positive then the large speculators are net long. If the value is negative, the large speculators are net short.

 

	25/6/2021	21/6/2021	11/6/2021	4/6/2021	28/5/2021	21/5/2021
USD index	-500	-2,300	1,800	3,000	2,800	2,700
EUR	89,100	118,200	107,200	109,300	104,000	99,900
GBP	17,900	32,200	27,700	24,100	30,700	24,900
AUD	-17,600	-17,900	-9,400	-1,900	-800	3,000
NZD	3,300	3,300	5,500	5,900	8,600	8,400
CAD	43,200	44,300	45,300	48,800	46,100	38,600
CHF	13,600	9,400	1,100	300	-1,200	-4,300
JPY	-53,900	-46,900	-37,300	-47,100	-50,200	-50,900

_{Table 1: Total net positions of large speculators}

 

Notes:

Large speculators are traders who trade large volumes of futures contracts, which, if the set limits are met, must be reported to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Typically, this includes traders such as funds or large banks. These traders mostly focus on trading long-term trends and their goal is to make money on speculation with the instrument.

The total net positions of large speculators are the difference between the number of long contracts and the number of short contracts of large speculators. Positive value shows that large speculators are net long. Negative value shows that large speculators are net short. The data is published every Friday and is delayed because it shows the status on Tuesday of the week.

The total net positions of large speculators show the sentiment this group has in the market. A positive value of the total net positions of speculators indicates bullish sentiment, a negative value of total net positions indicates bearish sentiment.

When interpreting charts and values, it is important to follow the overall trend of total net positions. The turning points are also very important, i.e. the moments when the total net positions go from a positive value to a negative one and vice versa. Important are also extreme values of total net positions as they often serve as signals of a trend reversal.

Sentiment according to the reported positions of large players in futures markets is not immediately reflected in the movement of currency pairs. Therefore, information on sentiment is more likely to be used by traders who take longer trades and are willing to hold their positions for several weeks or even months.

Detailed analysis of selected currencies

Explanations:
 

Purple line and histogram in the chart window: this is information on the total net position of large speculators. This information shows the strength and sentiment of an ongoing trend.

Green line in the indicator window: these are the bullish positions of large speculators.

Red line in the indicator window: indicates the bearish positions of large speculators.

If there is a green line above the red line in the indicator window, then it means that the overall net positions are positive, i.e. that bullish sentiment prevails. If, on the other hand, the green line is below the red line, then bearish sentiment prevails and the overall net positions of the big speculators are negative.

Information on the positions of so-called hedgers is not shown in the chart, due to the fact that their main goal is not speculation, but hedging. Therefore, this group usually takes the opposite positions than the large speculators. For this reason, the positions of hedgers are inversely correlated with the movement of the price of the underlying asset. However, this inverse correlation shows the ongoing trend less clearly than the position of large speculators.

Charts are made with the use of www.tradingview.com.
 

Euro

Date	Weekly change in open interest	Weekly change in total net positions of speculators	Weekly change in total long positions of speculators	Weekly change in total short positions of speculators	Sentiment
25/6/2021	100	-29,100	-3,000	26,100	Weakening bullish
21/6/2021	-48,400	11,000	-21,300	-32,300	Bullish
11/6/2021	1,100	-2,100	-5,300	-3,200	Weakening bullish

 

Total net speculator positions fell by 29,100 contracts last week. This change is due to a decrease in long positions of 3,000 contracts and an increase in short positions of 26,100 contracts.

The price of the euro strengthened slightly last week and is hovering near the trend line.

Long-term resistance: 1.2240 - 1.2350

Long-term support: 1.1700 - 1.1750
 

The British pound

Date	Weekly change in open interest	Weekly change in total net positions of speculators	Weekly change in total long positions of speculators	Weekly change in total short positions of speculators	Sentiment
25/6/2021	15,200	-14,300	-3,800	10,500	Weakening bullish
21/6/2021	-15,500	4,500	-4,000	-8,500	Bullish
11/6/2021	-2,900	3,600	-5,000	-8,600	Bullish

 

Last week, the total net positions of speculators fell by 14,300 contracts. This change is the result of a decrease in long positions by 3,800 and an increase in short positions by 10,500 contracts.

The pound strengthened slightly against the US dollar last week.

 

Long-term resistance: 1.42-1.4350

 

Long-term support: 1.3670-1.3700
 

The Australian dollar

Date	Weekly change in open interest	Weekly change in total net positions of speculators	Weekly change in total long positions of speculators	Weekly change in total short positions of speculators	Sentiment
25/6/2021	23,600	300	16,000	15,700	Bearish
21/6/2021	-24,500	-8,400	-8,000	400	Bearish
11/6/2021	13,500	-7,500	-7,200	300	Bearish

 

Last week, speculators' total net positions rose by 300 contracts. This change is due to an increase in long positions by 16,000 and an increase in short positions by 15,700 contracts.

The Australian dollar strengthened last week and continues to hover around the 0.7550 support area.

Long-term resistance: 0.7870-0.8000

 

Long-term support: 0.7530-0.7600
 

The New Zealand dollar

 

Date	Weekly change in open interest	Weekly change in total net positions of speculators	Weekly change in total long positions of speculators	Weekly change in total short positions of speculators	Sentiment
25/6/2021	1,400	0	700	700	Weakening bullish
21/6/2021	-7,900	-2,200	-3,500	-1,200	Weakening bullish
11/6/2021	-450	-400	-2,700	-2,300	Weakening bullish

Last week, total net positions remained virtually unchanged, which is the result of a 700-contract increase in long positions and a 700-contract increase in short positions.

The NZD strengthened strongly last week and bounced off support levels.

Resistance: 0.7370-0.7450

The nearest support: 0.6900-0.6960